The background description provided herein is for the purpose of generally presenting the context of the disclosure. Work of the presently named inventors, to the extent it is described in this background section, as well as aspects of the description that may not otherwise qualify as prior art at the time of filing, are neither expressly nor impliedly admitted as prior art against the present disclosure.
Energy use is a large, but mandatory, expense incurred by manufacturers or facility operators. The operation of a production facility requires distinct levels of energy during full-capacity production, reduced capacity production, and non-production periods. To receive a discount on energy prices, energy may be reserved or pre-purchased at a discounted rate. This requires that the manufacturer or facility operator estimate how much energy will be used over a time period. A manufacturer or facility operator does not want to overestimate the amount of energy needed because the unused energy is generally non-refundable. Similarly, a manufacturer or facility operator does not want to underestimate the amount of energy needed because that requires purchasing the energy at a non-discounted rate thereby defeating the benefits of the pre-purchased discount, wasting efforts of estimating the amount of energy needed over a time period, and causing financial burdens due to urgent budget reconciliation
To best determine how much energy is needed, forecasting methods have been used. Historically, forecasting methods have been imprecise because they rely on outdated information, they are limited by the subjective variables and model selection considered by the creator of the forecasting method, and/or they do not account for changes in production elements and demands.